Client: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Credit Valley Conservation

Year: 2021 - Present

Focus Area: Ecosystem Services (Species Distribution Modeling)

Tools: SyncroSim, WISDM, wisdmStsimConnector, ST-Sim

 

Project Overview

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a core tool for understanding where organisms occur, supporting the management of wildlife, natural resources, and the environment. SDMs help practitioners predict how species may respond to change, including shifts in climate, land cover, and co-occurrence with other species. While there are many established tools, such as MaxEnt and many R packages, most address only portions of the full end-to-end SDM workflow.

In collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, ApexRMS has developed WISDM (the Workbench for Integrated Species Distribution Modeling), a modern and open-source SyncroSim package that streamlines and standardizes the SDM pipeline. WISDM updates and replaces the VisTrails Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM), offering a more flexible and integrated approach. Within the SyncroSim environment, WISDM guides users through data preparation, model fitting, ensemble generation, and visualization. This enables reproducible and transparent analyses for scientists and land managers.

Here, we highlight three projects that showcase our work with SDMs using WISDM:

Forecasting buffelgrass invasion under climate change (Saguaro National Park, AZ)

We used WISDM to generate habitat suitability projections for buffelgrass under multiple climate change scenarios. These projections were then passed to ST-Sim to forecast the spatial extent of invasion under varying combinations of future climate conditions and invasive plant management strategies. This integrated workflow provided managers with side-by-side comparisons of potential outcomes to inform prioritization of control efforts.

Evaluating management scenarios for Canada thistle (Badlands National Park, SD)

Building on prior resource-management modeling in South Dakota, we developed an SDM for Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense) and evaluated four scenarios: (1) contemporary climate with herbicide spraying, (2) contemporary climate without spraying, (3) future climate with spraying, and (4) future climate without spraying. Differences among scenarios clarified how climate and treatment interact, helping park staff plan mitigation strategies to limit spread and allocate treatment resources more effectively. Specifically, we estimated a substantial increase in habitat suitability in the next 30 years because of climate change (Figure 1).

Anticipating climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity (Southern Ontario)

For Credit Valley Conservation (CVC) in southern Ontario, we modeled the distributions of 60 target species across North America, then predicted occurrence within the Credit River Watershed under current and 2050 climate conditions and under alternative land-use scenarios. Results indicated an overall net decline in average suitable area for resident species, especially birds and plants, though some species were projected to become more common (Figure 2). The findings also highlighted the importance of forecasted restoration in future land-use scenarios, which will provide key corridors and habitats for species undergoing range shifts and constrictions. These projections are being used in CVC’s long-term planning and conservation objective setting, highlighting where climate-driven range shifts may intersect with land-use change.