Project: Assessment of cumulative effects on the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd habitat in Northern Alberta
Project:
Assessment of cumulative effects on the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd habitat in Northern Alberta
Clients: Government of Alberta, McMurray Métis, Fort McKay Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation
Year: 2018-2019, 2023-2025
Focus Areas: Ecosystem Services (Wildlife Habitat)
Clients: Government of Alberta, McMurray Métis, Fort McKay Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation
Year: 2018-2019, 2023-2025
Focus Areas: Ecosystem Services (Wildlife Habitat)
Project Overview
The Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd (RLBH), located in Northern Alberta, is one of the few remaining free-ranging and disease-free herds of Wood Buffalo (Bison bison athabascae) in Canada (Fig. 1; Dewart et al. 2020). The sustainability of the Ronald Lake herd is threatened by several anthropogenic and natural processes, including oil and gas exploration and extraction, forestry, disease, wildfire, and extreme precipitation (DeMars et al. 2017, ECCC 2021). Local indigenous communities including McMurray Métis, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, Fort McKay Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation have close practical and spiritual connections to the Ronald Lake herd and are concerned for the herd’s longevity. Members of these communities hold valuable knowledge about the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd and its relationship with the local habitat, developed over generations of observing and sharing land with the herd. This indigenous knowledge is crucial information that can benefit wildlife habitat management to ensure the persistence of species.
We worked with these indigenous communities to develop both conceptual and quantitative state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) to assess the cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities and natural processes on the RLBH’s habitat. Conceptual models identify what are thought to be the key components of a system, the relationships between the components, and the possible responses of a system to drivers of change summarized in a diagram or flowchart. We worked collaboratively with McMurray Métis to document different buffalo habitat by combining ground surveys and remotely sensed data. We also characterized the existing and potential drivers of change and their impacts on habitat (Figs. 2 and 3). Building this information into our STSM, we produced accurate predictions of buffalo habitat, which we could forecast with potential land cover changes.
Quantitative STSMs were developed with members of the RLBH Technical Team, who are individuals from indigenous communities, local industry, and government bodies, as well as academic research collaborators for the RLBH range. Built using our ST-Sim SyncroSim package, these models incorporated local ITK to inform model parameters. Quantitative STSMs have an additional advantage of identifying uncertainties related to the long-term sustainability of key habitat, supporting the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd at a landscape scale. Using this quantitative STSM, we ran a series of different future scenarios, allowing for different rates of natural and human disturbances, to forecast habitat outcomes for the herd. These insights allow stakeholders to make informed land management decisions. We continue to work with these local indigenous communities to identify and quantify other factors influencing the Ronald Lake Bison Herd’s habitat.
Figure 1. The extent of free-ranging Wood Buffalo herds across Canada, with the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd circled in red (ECCC 2016).
Figure 2. Conceptual model of the causes and effects of blue-green algae on buffalo and water bodies in the Ronald Lake region based on a review of 50 papers. Blue-green algae was observed in the major lakes located in the core RLBH habitat range, sparking concerns about the effects of the toxic algae’s presence on the herd’s health and habitat choice.
Figure 3. Average annual ice duration (in days) for lakes in the Ronald Lake region from 1990 to 2020 overlaid with the RLBH’s predicted habitat (purple polygon). Ice duration was estimated using Random Forest models trained on historical ice phenology data, CRU climate variables, and lake physical characteristics. Buffalo often travel across frozen water bodies over the winter to access other resources. We investigated whether the time these water bodies stayed frozen influenced buffalo’s access to habitat.
Project Overview
The Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd (RLBH), located in Northern Alberta, is one of the few remaining free-ranging and disease-free herds of Wood Buffalo (Bison bison athabascae) in Canada (Fig. 1; Dewart et al. 2020). The sustainability of the Ronald Lake herd is threatened by several anthropogenic and natural processes, including oil and gas exploration and extraction, forestry, disease, wildfire, and extreme precipitation (DeMars et al. 2017, ECCC 2021). Local indigenous communities including McMurray Métis, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, Fort McKay Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation have close practical and spiritual connections to the Ronald Lake herd and are concerned for the herd’s longevity. Members of these communities hold valuable knowledge about the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd and its relationship with the local habitat, developed over generations of observing and sharing land with the herd. This indigenous knowledge is crucial information that can benefit wildlife habitat management to ensure the persistence of species.
We worked with these indigenous communities to develop both conceptual and quantitative state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) to assess the cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities and natural processes on the RLBH’s habitat. Conceptual models identify what are thought to be the key components of a system, the relationships between the components, and the possible responses of a system to drivers of change summarized in a diagram or flowchart. We worked collaboratively with McMurray Métis to document different buffalo habitat by combining ground surveys and remotely sensed data. We also characterized the existing and potential drivers of change and their impacts on habitat (Figs. 2 and 3). Building this information into our STSM, we produced accurate predictions of buffalo habitat, which we could forecast with potential land cover changes.
Quantitative STSMs were developed with members of the RLBH Technical Team, who are individuals from indigenous communities, local industry, and government bodies, as well as academic research collaborators for the RLBH range. Built using our ST-Sim SyncroSim package, these models incorporated local ITK to inform model parameters. Quantitative STSMs have an additional advantage of identifying uncertainties related to the long-term sustainability of key habitat, supporting the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd at a landscape scale. Using this quantitative STSM, we ran a series of different future scenarios, allowing for different rates of natural and human disturbances, to forecast habitat outcomes for the herd. These insights allow stakeholders to make informed land management decisions. We continue to work with these local indigenous communities to identify and quantify other factors influencing the Ronald Lake Bison Herd’s habitat.
Figure 1. The extent of free-ranging Wood Buffalo herds across Canada, with the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd circled in red (ECCC 2016).
Figure 2. Conceptual model of the causes and effects of blue-green algae on buffalo and water bodies in the Ronald Lake region based on a review of 50 papers. Blue-green algae was observed in the major lakes located in the core RLBH habitat range, sparking concerns about the effects of the toxic algae’s presence on the herd’s health and habitat choice.
Figure 3. Average annual ice duration (in days) for lakes in the Ronald Lake region from 1990 to 2020 overlaid with the RLBH’s predicted habitat (purple polygon). Ice duration was estimated using Random Forest models trained on historical ice phenology data, CRU climate variables, and lake physical characteristics. Buffalo often travel across frozen water bodies over the winter to access other resources. We investigated whether the time these water bodies stayed frozen influenced buffalo’s access to habitat.
Clients: Government of Alberta, McMurray Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation
Year: 2018-2019, 2023-2025
Focus Areas: Ecosystem Services (Wildlife Habitat)
Project Overview
The Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd (RLBH), located in Northern Alberta, is one of the few remaining free-ranging and disease-free herds of Wood Buffalo (Bison bison athabascae) in Canada (Fig. 1; Dewart et al. 2020). The sustainability of the Ronald Lake herd is threatened by several anthropogenic and natural processes, including oil and gas exploration and extraction, forestry, disease, wildfire, and extreme precipitation (DeMars et al. 2017, ECCC 2021). Local indigenous communities including McMurray Métis, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, Fort McKay Métis, Fort Chipewyan Métis, and Fort McMurray #468 First Nation have close practical and spiritual connections to the Ronald Lake herd and are concerned for the herd’s longevity. Members of these communities hold valuable knowledge about the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd and its relationship with the local habitat, developed over generations of observing and sharing land with the herd. This indigenous knowledge is crucial information that can benefit wildlife habitat management to ensure the persistence of species.
We worked with these indigenous communities to develop both conceptual and quantitative state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) to assess the cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities and natural processes on the RLBH’s habitat. Conceptual models identify what are thought to be the key components of a system, the relationships between the components, and the possible responses of a system to drivers of change summarized in a diagram or flowchart. We worked collaboratively with McMurray Métis to document different buffalo habitat by combining ground surveys and remotely sensed data. We also characterized the existing and potential drivers of change and their impacts on habitat (Figs. 2 and 3). Building this information into our STSM, we produced accurate predictions of buffalo habitat, which we could forecast with potential land cover changes.
Quantitative STSMs were developed with members of the RLBH Technical Team, who are individuals from indigenous communities, local industry, and government bodies, as well as academic research collaborators for the RLBH range. Built using our ST-Sim SyncroSim package, these models incorporated local ITK to inform model parameters. Quantitative STSMs have an additional advantage of identifying uncertainties related to the long-term sustainability of key habitat, supporting the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd at a landscape scale. Using this quantitative STSM, we ran a series of different future scenarios, allowing for different rates of natural and human disturbances, to forecast habitat outcomes for the herd. These insights allow stakeholders to make informed land management decisions. We continue to work with these local indigenous communities to identify and quantify other factors influencing the Ronald Lake Bison Herd’s habitat.
Figure 1. The extent of free-ranging Wood Buffalo herds across Canada, with the Ronald Lake Buffalo Herd circled in red (ECCC 2016).
Figure 2. Conceptual model of the causes and effects of blue-green algae on buffalo and water bodies in the Ronald Lake region based on a review of 50 papers. Blue-green algae was observed in the major lakes located in the core RLBH habitat range, sparking concerns about the effects of the toxic algae’s presence on the herd’s health and habitat choice.
Figure 3.Average annual ice duration (in days) for lakes in the Ronald Lake region from 1990 to 2020 overlaid with the RLBH’s predicted habitat (purple polygon). Ice duration was estimated using Random Forest models trained on historical ice phenology data, CRU climate variables, and lake physical characteristics. Buffalo often travel across frozen water bodies over the winter to access other resources. We investigated whether the time these water bodies stayed frozen influenced buffalo’s access to habitat.